The Energy Deficit and the Pickens Plan

This graphic is from the EIA in their energy brief on energy subsidies:

From this graph, we consume more energy (blue line) than we produce domestically (red line). The difference between the two is how much we have to import to balance the books, so to speak. This deficit amounts to about 30% of all energy consumed on a yearly basis.

The question now goes to those who want the US to become “energy independent”. How do you get those two lines to converge. You have to either bring down consumption, increase production or end up with a combination of the two. But if you don’t, then you’re still going to be importing energy. That’s the bottom line.

This is the elephant in the room for the Pickens Plan. Right now, the plan is to shift consumption sources around, from oil to natural gas in road transportation and from natural gas to wind in electricity. But shifting the production resources doesn’t address the fundamental imbalance between demand and supply. The difference will still need to be made up, and the Pickens Plan doesn’t do that at all. He’s just playing Three Card Monte with energy.

But one argument would be: yeah, but we’re reducing our imports of oil, so that’s something. But something will have to replace it if you don’t increase energy production by 30%. That is not the goal of the Pickens Plan, so there will still be energy imports even if the Pickens Plan is implemented.

But we have to make sure those dirty Arabs and other terrorist nations don’t get any American oil money, even if we end up buying their natural gas, uranium and other energy sources, which then means that the Pickens Plan will accomplish nothing. Well, except put money in Pickens’ pocket.

How much land would be needed for the Pickens Plan to work?

But let’s give the benefit of the doubt to Pickens and say that wind could make up the difference. How many windmills and land would be needed for it to work?

From the graph in my previous post, we have a power deficit of 300,000,000,000,000,000 British Thermal Units. This converted to kilowatt hours is 87 921 325 000 000 kWh. You need to get capacity to figure out how much space is needed, which is in units of kilowatts so you divide by the number of hours in a year, specifically 8420. That means you need to have 10441962589 kW of capacity to get this much power in a year.

But wind turbines don’t run 24 hours a day, in fact, they only run about 33 to 50% of the time, so you actually need double the capacity, AT BEST, to get the capacity needed. So you really need 20883925178 kW to supply the power importation needs for the US.

How much land would this require? For that I went here and used their calculator. The end results:

To get the US off foreign energy, we would need 41,767,850 turbines, which would cover 10,441,962.5 acres. This is also 16316 square miles. Or nearly the size of Vermont and New Hampshire COMBINED. And this is just for the physical items of turbines themselves.

Using a different method, a rule of thumb is that one square kilometer can support 10 to 15 MW of capacity. So using the figure above, we’d get 20883925 MW. So dividing by the best case scenario of 15 MW per square km, we get 1392262 sq. km or 537555 square miles. This is approximately the size of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska and half of South Dakota, including urban areas, highways, mountains, and water.

So when T. Boone says that the Great Plains is the Saudi Arabia of wind, you better believe it because if we’re going to use wind to get the US energy independent, the Great Plains will become one giant wind farm.

And this is under a BEST case scenario. Just for fun, lets use the lower end of the power estimates (under the cut):

Pickens Gives Another Unsourced Figure

From Boone’s Blog:

Last year we sent more than $300 billion to countries controlled by oppressive or unstable regimes.

Now, let’s see if he’s somewhat right here…

Last year we spent $360 billion on foreign petroleum products (more than just oil, BTW). Of that, we sent the following amounts just on crude oil:

Canada: $41 billion
The United Kingdom: $2.6 billion
Norway: $1.5 billion
Mexico: $ 30.2 billion
Columbia: $3.5 billion

Total for these five: $78.8 billion

So we’re below $300 billion before factoring in other petroleum products (like natural gas). And this doesn’t even include other stable countries like the Virgin Islands, Aruba, Brazil or the Netherlands. Looks like T. Boone is playing with the numbers once again.