You can see the video here:
http://www.nbc.com/The_Tonight_Show_with_Jay_Leno/video/episodes/#vid=648021
Skip to the 35:00 mark, that’s when he stops doing his old man impression and gets to the Pickens Plan.
And of course, he started with the $700 billion lie, just like I thought he would. He said that he did the analysis ($700 billion and 70% of consumed oil is foreign) then went with his plan. If the analysis is wrong, which it is, what does that say about his plan?
Then he asserts that we (The US) is paying for both sides of the war, but doesn’t specify which war (Iraq? Afghanistan? On Terror?).
Then he states that the OPEC countries had revenues of $250 billion and now that’s $1.25 trillion. I’ll have to check that out in a bit to see if that’s correct or not.
Then he says “If you want to see where your money is going, go over to the middle east and look at those buildings.” Which contradicts his assertion that oil money is funding terrorism. If oil money is funding terrorism, then it’s not going to building Dubai. I’m pretty sure that terrorists, at least of the fundamentalist Islamic type, do not like Dubai, but they don’t bomb it because they’re Arabs and that would put a pretty big negative on their public opinion. It’s easy to stay popular if you’re attacking a foreigner, it’s less so if you’re attacking someone who looks and speaks like you. But that’s a different story that T. Boone isn’t going try and catch up.
But then he says that he “doesn’t criticize them, but that we’re to blame for the fix we’re in.” Which is a pretty big paradox he sets up. Does he think we’re funding terrorists through the middle east countries we import oil from? Or does he think that there’s nothing wrong with what the Middle East is spending their money on? But you can’t get both ways there.
He then goes into the plan where he says that we have an abundance of natural gas and his usual “it’s cheaper, cleaner and ours” routine he’s done many times before. They get into a little banter about how the US is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas, which is true. He doesn’t mention that there are other countries that have alot more natural gas than we do. What happens when the US runs out of our reserves?
The discussion then turns to municipal bus fleets, and T. Boone uses the opportunity to go after Dallas for considering to run their buses on diesel, about which he says that “clean diesel” is an oxymoron. Jay then compares using diesel like a drug dealer, where they give you the price low and then raise the price later. T. Boone agrees with that analogy.
And again, Pickens is wrong. It’s natural gas that’s historically “cheap”, though rising in cost along with gas. Here’s why. Oil is already been priced high, because we’re already using it as the main transportation fuel. If Dallas is struggling with the decision, already knowing that diesel has already hit the $5 a gallon mark, then what is it going to go from here? However, natural gas is increasing in usage and the price is where it is right now. But what happens in the future (which is what this discussion is all about) is when the Pickens Plan is implemented and everyone switches to natural gas? The price increases much more than diesel, which people switch away from. So it’s actually natural gas that’s like the drug. Which makes Pickens the drug dealer, in this analogy.
He then tops it off with a threat to move to Fort Worth because their fleet runs on natural gas. I’ll believe that when I see it.
Jay then mentions that it’s easy to convert cars to natural gas, though I don’t see anything in a cursory search of the internet that suggests easy (and this isn’t “change the oil” easy, we’re talking “replace the transmission”). 98% of car owners aren’t going to be able to do this themselves, which is more of a sign of the complexity of the situation than anything else.
But then T. Boone has the revealing moment of the interview. He states that “he’s focused on trucks” and gives some statistics on that. What he doesn’t mention that is that the reason he’s interested is because he has a giant financial stake in getting trucks to run on natural gas. He’s on the board of directors of Clean Energy Fuels Corp, a supplier of natural gas to fleet vehicles (trucks). If he can get his plan to focus on trucks, then his company can see a large increase in demand for his services.
And lo and behold, he’s mentioned countless times that he wants the federal government to FORCE fleet vehicles to run on natural gas. In fact, at the 38:41 mark, he almost lets this cat out of the bag. He says:
I want those trucks. And I want the government, and I want the administration coming in to—you know, I started this on July the 8th.
See, he almost said what he wanted to do was force companies to use natural gas. I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that servicing fleet vehicles is EXACTLY what his company does. No politicking there at all, no financial benefit to him personally. Nope, not at all.
They wrap up by Jay mentioning that it’s about a $1.50 a gallon to fill up natural gas. This might be true… if you live in Utah or Oklahoma. (It’s no coincidence that these are two major producing areas in the US). Otherwise, you’re seeing above $2 per unit.
And he ends up with a prediction of $200-300 a barrel of oil if we continue with our current consumption. Considering that we haven’t even reached his prediction of $150 a barrel that he said we’d reach this summer, I’d take this with a bit of a grain of salt.
He also never got around to covering the wind part of his plan, but that part also has as many holes in it as his natural gas plan. So it’s probably best not to take up more time, but he did run long on the natural gas part.
So overall, he used his folksy style to cover up a bunch of lies and self-interest for the show. And the worse part is that he probably wasn’t very entertaining to boot. But we’ll see if his book promotion tour brings up any interest in his plan or not.